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The origin of the word econometrics can be attributed to the Norwegian Ragnar Frisch, who was also among the principal founders of the Econometric society and a celebrated economist. Econometrics is the application of statistical and mathematical tools to economic data in order to quantitatively deduce economic problems. It aims to unify the quantitative aspects of both theoretical and empirical contexts. However, one should not confuse econometrics with only being concerned with the application of mathematical and statistical tools to economic theory but it is concerned with the amalgamation of the three as a whole. This unification is what constitutes the foundation of econometrics. This discipline is used in a wide array of sectors such as finance, marketing & business.
Econometrics can be defined as:
The use of statistical methods to describe economic data and systems. Econometrics is a combination of economics, mathematical economics and statistics to provide numerical values to the parameters of economic relationships.
Econometrics measures economic relationships. Relationships in economic theories are experessed in mathematical formats and combined with empirical economics. Values of parameters are obtained using econometric methods. These values are nothing but the coefficietns of the mathematical form of the economic relationships.
Econometrics can be divided into two main parts:
According to the IMF (International MOnetary Fund):
1. Econometrics uses economic theory, mathematics and statistical inference to quantify economic phenomena and converts theoretical economic models into tools for economic policy making.
2. The objective of econometrics is to convert qualitative statements into quantitative statements.
3. Economists who practice econometrics are called econometricians. Econometricians transform models developed by economic theorists into versions that can be quantified or estimated.
According to Stock and Watson (2007):
econometric methods are used in many branches of economics, including finance, labor economics, macroeconomics, microeconomics, and economic policy.
The three primary goals of econometrics are as below:
Econometrics is very important as a means to understand the economic behaviour of people and processes. One of the other important functions of econometrics is forecasting which is very useful when setting important policies affecting the country. The setting of the monetary policies by national and state governments and international monetary bodies is dependent on the econometric models and analysis. For example, a government, before setting a fiscal policy of the country would want to know what effect it might have on the people’s rate of spending or consumption. Apart from this the econometric analysis is being used in fields such as finance, banking, actuaries, insurance, HR, etc. Many business decisions of stock traders and financial analysts are dependent on the econometric forecasts. Econometrics as a subject of study is highly in demand now and a number of universities and colleges are offering specialised courses in the subject, after completion of which many career options become available.
The methodology of econometrics starts with the testing of a hypothesis or the developing of a new one. Mathematical and statistical models are established and then the data is obtained. Collection of raw data is the basis of econometric analysis. These data are collected through statistical methods. The tools and techniques used in the process includes the probability theory, regression, correlation, time series methods, simultaneous equation models, least squares, recursive estimation, unit roots, Monte Carlo simulation, ergodicity etc. Econometricians observe the variables: dependent and independent and observe how their relationship plays out. For example: Econometrics can be specifically used to infer the relationship between income and consumption, income and national GDP, between unemployment and stock prices etc.
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Development of technology has played an important role in developing econometrics as a significant discipline with multiple functions. Contemporary econometric software are prepackaged which makes it easier for analysts to run their own programmes according to models formulated. Earlier, they had to use someone else’s programs or write their own. A number of software available today like SPSS, STATA, R language, TSP, RATS have made it really easy for econometric analysts.
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Econometrics is considered a separate discipline because it applies statistical methods and techniques to economic data in order to test hypotheses and make empirical estimates of economic relationships. It is a way to quantify and test economic theories using data, and helps to bridge the gap between theory and practice in economics. Econometrics also provides a way to measure and analyze the impact of economic policy. As a separate discipline it also has its own set of methods and techniques, which are different from those used in other fields such as statistics or mathematics.
In econometrics, "str" is short for "structure". It typically refers to the underlying functional form or mathematical structure of a model, such as a linear regression model or a time series model. It is used to describe the relationship between the variables in the model, and can include things like the presence of interactions, non-linearities, or lagged terms. The choice of str is important as it can greatly impact the estimation and prediction performance of the model.
In econometrics, "IID" stands for "Independent and Identically Distributed." It refers to a statistical assumption that states that a sample of observations is independently drawn from the same underlying probability distribution. In other words, each observation in the sample is independent of all other observations, and the probability distribution of the observations is the same for all observations. This assumption is often made in order to simplify the statistical analysis of a sample and make it more tractable.
Econometrics is the application of statistical methods to economic data in order to test hypotheses about economic relationships. Some specific things that can be done with econometrics include:
Econometrics is not only used in Economics but also in other fields such as Finance, Business, and Political Science, among others.
Overidentification in econometrics refers to a situation where the number of identifying restrictions or assumptions used in a model exceeds the number of parameters to be estimated. This can occur, for example, in the context of instrumental variable estimation, where more instruments are used than are necessary for identifying the parameters of interest. Overidentification can be used to perform various diagnostic tests for model misspecification.
In econometrics, the rank condition refers to the requirement that the number of independent variables in a multiple regression model must be less than or equal to the number of observations in the dataset. The rank condition ensures that the matrix of independent variables is invertible, and thus, the model can be estimated using the ordinary least squares (OLS) method. If the rank condition is not met, the model is said to be "over-identified" and other estimation methods, such as two-stage least squares, must be used.
OLS stands for "Ordinary Least Squares" in econometrics. It is a method used to estimate the parameters of a linear regression model. OLS finds the line of best fit for a dataset by minimizing the sum of the squared differences between the predicted and actual values.
Econometrics can be used in finance to analyze and model financial data, such as stock prices, interest rates, and exchange rates. Techniques such as time series analysis, regression analysis, and forecasting can be used to make predictions about future market trends and to identify patterns in historical data. Econometrics can also be used to estimate the parameters of financial models and to test hypotheses about the relationships between different financial variables. Additionally, econometrics can be used to measure the risk and return of investment portfolios and to evaluate the performance of trading strategies.
Click on the questions below for the answers:
Building an econometric model in Excel involves several steps:
Note: Econometric modeling is quite complex and it is often recommended to use specialized software such as Eviews, Stata, R or Python with specialized packages like statsmodel or scikit-learn.
Econometrics is a branch of economics that uses statistical methods to analyze and model economic data. It is considered to be a part of the social sciences because it is concerned with understanding and explaining social phenomena, such as economic behavior and decision-making, and is often used in conjunction with other social science disciplines, such as sociology and political science, to study issues related to markets, governments, and societies.
Econometric research is a method of using statistical techniques to analyze economic data and make predictions about economic systems. The process typically involves collecting and cleaning data, specifying a model, estimating the parameters of the model, and interpreting the results.
To build an econometric model in Excel, follow these steps:
It is important to keep in mind that Excel is a powerful tool for building econometric models, but it is not always the best option. You may have large amounts of data or need more advanced techniques that may require specific software.
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