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The origin of the word econometrics can be attributed to the Norwegian Ragnar Frisch, who was also among the principal founders of the Econometric society and a celebrated economist. Econometrics is the application of statistical and mathematical tools to economic data in order to quantitatively deduce economic problems. It aims to unify the quantitative aspects of both theoretical and empirical contexts. However, one should not confuse econometrics with only being concerned with the application of mathematical and statistical tools to economic theory but it is concerned with the amalgamation of the three as a whole. This unification is what constitutes the foundation of econometrics. This discipline is used in a wide array of sectors such as finance, marketing & business.
Econometrics can be defined as:
The use of statistical methods to describe economic data and systems. Econometrics is a combination of economics, mathematical economics and statistics to provide numerical values to the parameters of economic relationships.
Econometrics measures economic relationships. Relationships in economic theories are experessed in mathematical formats and combined with empirical economics. Values of parameters are obtained using econometric methods. These values are nothing but the coefficietns of the mathematical form of the economic relationships.
Econometrics can be divided into two main parts:
According to the IMF (International MOnetary Fund):
1. Econometrics uses economic theory, mathematics and statistical inference to quantify economic phenomena and converts theoretical economic models into tools for economic policy making.
2. The objective of econometrics is to convert qualitative statements into quantitative statements.
3. Economists who practice econometrics are called econometricians. Econometricians transform models developed by economic theorists into versions that can be quantified or estimated.
According to Stock and Watson (2007):
econometric methods are used in many branches of economics, including finance, labor economics, macroeconomics, microeconomics, and economic policy.
The three primary goals of econometrics are as below:
Econometrics is very important as a means to understand the economic behaviour of people and processes. One of the other important functions of econometrics is forecasting which is very useful when setting important policies affecting the country. The setting of the monetary policies by national and state governments and international monetary bodies is dependent on the econometric models and analysis. For example, a government, before setting a fiscal policy of the country would want to know what effect it might have on the people’s rate of spending or consumption. Apart from this the econometric analysis is being used in fields such as finance, banking, actuaries, insurance, HR, etc. Many business decisions of stock traders and financial analysts are dependent on the econometric forecasts. Econometrics as a subject of study is highly in demand now and a number of universities and colleges are offering specialised courses in the subject, after completion of which many career options become available.
The methodology of econometrics starts with the testing of a hypothesis or the developing of a new one. Mathematical and statistical models are established and then the data is obtained. Collection of raw data is the basis of econometric analysis. These data are collected through statistical methods. The tools and techniques used in the process includes the probability theory, regression, correlation, time series methods, simultaneous equation models, least squares, recursive estimation, unit roots, Monte Carlo simulation, ergodicity etc. Econometricians observe the variables: dependent and independent and observe how their relationship plays out. For example: Econometrics can be specifically used to infer the relationship between income and consumption, income and national GDP, between unemployment and stock prices etc.
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Development of technology has played an important role in developing econometrics as a significant discipline with multiple functions. Contemporary econometric software are prepackaged which makes it easier for analysts to run their own programmes according to models formulated. Earlier, they had to use someone else’s programs or write their own. A number of software available today like SPSS, STATA, R language, TSP, RATS have made it really easy for econometric analysts.
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