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The global trade that we all are familiar with today was the brainchild of the United States in a world post world war II. For decades after WWII, Europe and the United States continued to work together to liberalize their economies. During the process, they took nations like Japan for a ride.
The General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) led to the formation of the World Trade Organization (WTO). The tariffs on goods fell away. This led to globalized markets that, in turn, paved a strong foundation for countries like China that were known for manufacturing-led growth.
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However, the WTO got stalled. With inclusion of diverse members, it was unable to reach an agreement on moving international trade forward. The liberalizations in trade were not able to match the pace of modern economic developments. The West took lead in digital commerce and services. The WTO was left far behind as it got stronger on the goods’ trade but weaker on services. Like-minded nations started to negotiate trade in smaller groups, leading to creation of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Trade in Services Agreement (TISA). The WTO’s role was largely confined to that of a rule enforcer in terms of trade of goods. Countries expected regional pacts to be expanded to the whole world, a status quo that is now under threat.
And the threat is the worlds largest economy, the US. It is resisting the ties that tie it by questioning the WTO out-rightly. It has refused to provide approval for appointing judges for the appellate body that handles trade disagreements. It has invoked unilateral trade remedy procedures not in use since the 1980s.
Global trade and markets are in a state of flux. They are witnessing what can be termed as the largest evolution in foreign commerce since WWII. The Global trade policy is undergoing its first major shift since 1995. There has been a major shift in priorities and preferences of the biggest competitors in the global economy while they are trying to navigate in this changing business environment.
What happened in the recent past that has so drastically challenged the current Global trade and markets? The answer is - a major shift in the stand of the United States, which has declared that it now no longer is keen to take the lead in the global trade scenario. While the US is eager to shake up global commerce, Europe seeks continuation of the after-war path and China is hell bent on preserving the status quo. The different interests of other blocs and countries, including Japan, China and the European Union, is making the alignment without the US quite tough.
In 2017, the US withdrew from the TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership) , and started renegotiating with Mexico and Canada the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and with South Korea under the United States-Korea Free Trade Agreement. The US’s growing dissatisfaction stems from the emerging Chinese domination in the Global trade and markets. The worlds second-largest economy has fully exploited the trade infrastructure put up by the United States and the European Union. It has achieved exponential growth in the last many decades. No global rules on modern trade topics such as non-tariff barriers and services work well for China. That is why, China is keen on maintaining the status quo of defending the WTO.
The European Union is eager to work in tandem with its major trade partners in the area of digital economy and services. It wants to set global standards in trade that will be adopted around the world.
Japan is in a transition phase. After the World War II, it shied away from taking up the global stage. It laid focus on export of goods and resisted measures to reform its regulations or laws. However, recently, there has been a shift and Japan has started taking the centerstage. It is aware of South Korea’s trade markets and Chinas domination on global map.
The United Kingdom is moving away from European Union, which manages 40% of its exports and 54% imports. A post-Brexit United Kingdom is expected to join the European Union and Japan that are seeking to modernize global markets.
India is struggling to find jobs for millions of workers entering its economy every month. It might want to create jobs by manufacturing like China but it has many political, infrastructural and geographical constraints. India leads in services but lacks in agriculture and manufacturing. Thus, it finds itself poorly positioned in global trading system. All it may seek is ways to reduce barriers to its services exports by negotiating bilateral pacts.
The future of Global trade and markets is hanging in air. The US refuses to lead in matters of world trade, leaving behind disparate countries keen to pursue their selfish priorities and interests. The whole world is waiting to see where this imbalance of shifting priorities will tilt. Till then, all we can hope for is a shining light at the end of a tunnel.
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